Last updated: February 13, 2026

Bitcoin hit $126,000 in October 2025. By early February 2026, it dropped to $60,000. As of mid-February 2026, BTC trades around $67,000. The question isn't whether a bull run will happen - it's whether this 47% correction marks a bottom or deeper trouble ahead.

Bull markets don't arrive with announcements. They build through accumulation, institutional flows, and shifting risk appetite. This analysis looks at current indicators and what they signal about market structure heading into spring 2026.

Bitcoin's Current Position

Price Action Since ATH

Bitcoin peaked at $126,000 in October 2025. The crash to $60,000 in early February 2026 shook out leveraged positions and triggered massive liquidations. Current price around $67,000 represents a 47% drop from ATH.

Historical bull cycles show 20-40% pullbacks during uptrends. But 47% drops typically signal deeper corrections or cycle transitions. The 2021 peak saw similar 50%+ crashes before final lows formed months later.

Mid-February 2026 price action shows choppy consolidation between $60K-$72K. On-chain data shows mixed signals - some long-term holders accumulating, but exchange outflows slowed significantly. Retail participation fading according to volume data.

ETF Flows Show Weakness

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024. After strong inflows through 2024 and into 2025, flows turned negative. January 2026 saw $278 million in outflows as institutions reduced exposure.

This isn't accumulation - it's distribution. When institutions sell quietly while retail stays cautious, that creates overhead supply. ETF selling pressure contributed to the February crash from $70K to $60K.

If flows turn positive again, that could signal institutional re-entry. So far, no signs of that happening.

Altcoin Market Structure

Bitcoin Dominance Rising

Bitcoin dominance climbed during the February selloff as capital fled altcoins. When Bitcoin crashes 47%, altcoins typically crash harder. Many altcoins down 60-80% from their peaks.

This isn't altcoin season - it's altcoin carnage. Dominance rises during bear phases as traders move to relative safety of BTC. When dominance peaks and starts falling while total market cap rises, that's when altcoin season typically begins.

Current positioning suggests fear, not rotation. Capital isn't testing altcoins - it's leaving crypto entirely based on volume data.

Volume and Liquidity

Trading volume collapsed. Aggregate volumes across major exchanges dropped roughly 30% since October/November 2025. Monthly spot volumes fell from around $1 trillion to $700 billion range.

This isn't healthy consolidation - it's retail exit. When volume drops like this, prices swing violently on modest selling. The February crash to $60K happened on relatively light volume, suggesting thin liquidity and weak buyer support.

Liquidity depth deteriorated. Large orders move prices more than they did in Q4 2025. This creates conditions for sharp moves in either direction without clear follow-through.

Technical Indicators

Moving Averages Show Weakness

Bitcoin broke below major moving averages during the February crash. Price trading below 200-day MA - a bearish signal. The recent bounce from $60K to $67K represents a relief rally, not trend reversal according to analysts.

Key resistance at $70K. Bitcoin tried to reclaim it multiple times in February but failed. Until price closes above $70K decisively, the downtrend remains intact technically.

On-Chain Signals Mixed

Active addresses declined as retail exits. New wallet creation slowed. Exchange inflows increased during the crash - classic distribution signal when investors move coins to exchanges to sell.

Some long-term holders accumulated near $60K, but not enough to absorb selling pressure. Realized profit/loss ratios show profit-taking dominant, not accumulation.

RSI and Momentum

Bitcoin's RSI bounced from oversold but remains in bearish territory. Relief rallies in bear markets show this pattern - brief oversold bounces that fail to sustain momentum.

The $60K-$72K range looks like distribution, not accumulation. Lower highs and lower lows since October ATH define the trend.

Market Cycle Assessment

Bitcoin price chart February 2026 showing 47% decline from $126K ATH with technical analysis indicators

2017 Peak: Retail FOMO, no institutions, hit $19K then crashed 84%
2021 Peak: Institutional entry, leverage extreme, hit $69K then crashed 77%
2025 Peak: ETF infrastructure, hit $126K, now down 47% and counting

The current drawdown looks similar to previous bear markets, not bull market corrections. Analysts debate whether the four-year cycle broke or if this represents a typical post-halving peak followed by extended bear phase.

Some expect Bitcoin to test $50K or lower through summer 2026 based on historical cycle patterns. Others think institutional support prevents deeper crashes. No consensus.

What Investors Are Watching

Projects with measurable usage metrics attract capital faster than pure speculation. Crypto assets investors accumulate during corrections tend to outperform when momentum returns.

On-chain metrics matter more than social media sentiment. Address growth, transaction volume, and developer activity provide leading indicators for which projects might sustain rallies.

For major crypto price predictions 2026, analysts focus on Bitcoin's path back toward ATH and whether dominance breaks down enough for broad altcoin participation.

Strategic Considerations

Bear Phase: Distribution, retail exits, institutions sell
Consolidation: Choppy range, no clear direction, low volume
Early Recovery: Institutional buying returns, retail still cautious
Bull Phase: Everyone confident, volume surges, new ATHs

February 2026 indicators suggest we're in bear/consolidation phase. Not recovery, definitely not bull. ETF outflows, volume collapse, failed rallies at resistance - these aren't bullish signals.

The shift from bear to recovery happens when selling exhausts and buyers return. Volume needs to increase on up moves, not down moves. So far, biggest volume spikes come on selloffs.

Current Phase Assessment

February 2026 looks more like bear market consolidation than bull market accumulation. Bitcoin down 47% from ATH, volumes collapsed 30%, ETFs showing outflows, retail exiting.

The $60K-$72K range could hold for months. Or it could break lower if macro conditions worsen. Some analysts target $50K by summer. Others think $60K was the bottom.

Understanding altcoin cycle 2026 dynamics matters because Bitcoin moves first, altcoins follow. But current data shows weakness across the board - BTC struggling, altcoins worse.

Accumulation looks minimal compared to distribution so far. This could change, but current conditions favor caution over aggression.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets carry substantial risk.